DOE Scores

Dispute Outcome Expectations: measuring how raw capabilities shape military power.

About DOE Scores

The Dispute Outcome Expectations score is a probabilistic measure of how a hypothetical militarized dispute between two states would end, taking into account each side's raw military capabilities.

The DOE scores are the output of an ensemble of machine learning models. We fit the models on the Militarized Interstate Disputes data and then use them to calculate predicted probabilities for every dyad–year from 1816 to 2007.

If you use the DOE scores, please cite the associated working paper.


DOE scores are available for download from Dataverse. The current version of the dataset is 1.0.

The scores come in two flavors: directed and undirected. The directed scores give the probability of the initiator winning, the target winning, or a stalemate. The undirected scores give the probability of each state winning (or a stalemate), assuming a 50-50 chance of either side being the initiator.

The code used to create the DOE scores is available on GitHub.

Working Paper

For a full description of the methods and data used to create the DOE scores, see our working paper "Prediction, Proxies, and Power".

Contact Us

The Dispute Outcome Expectations project was created by Rob Carroll and Brenton Kenkel.